What is meant by Future Foresight?

Foresight refers to a systematic, future-oriented process aimed at understanding future probabilities, drivers of change, and possible alternatives, as well as designing strategies and actions based on these insights.

The term was first introduced by H.G. Wells in 1932 and is considered one of the oldest concepts in futures studies. The foundation of foresight lies in the idea that while the future cannot be predicted, it can be influenced through actions taken today.

Key Characteristics and Approaches:

• Creativity and Holistic Perspective: Good foresight generates new, creative ideas that are both innovative and realistic. It aims to comprehensively address potential future events and directions of change.
• Three Perspectives: Foresight integrates the understanding of the past (hindsight), analysis of the present (insight), and anticipation of the future (forecasting).
• Alternative Futures: The goal is to explore and develop diverse scenarios of possible future development paths, rather than focusing solely on the most probable ones.
• Inclusiveness: Foresight processes are often interactive and participatory, involving various stakeholders to enhance legitimacy and foster shared visions of the future.

Practical Processes:

Future foresight can be strategic, participatory, or expert-driven, employing methods such as Delphi studies or scenario analysis.

According to the EU’s FOREN report, effective foresight combines long-term anticipation, participatory methods, and networking. The report also emphasizes that the visions produced by foresight work should be realistic and tied to current decision-making.

Important Elements:

• Anticipation of long-term development needs.
• Broad stakeholder participation and information gathering.
• Building networks.
• Creating shared strategic visions that are not utopian but impactful for present decisions.

Types of Foresight:

1. Strategic Foresight: Focuses on supporting decision-making and relies on expert knowledge.
2. Participatory Foresight: Involves extensive networks and stakeholder opinions.
3. Expert-Driven Foresight: Evidence-based and operates without broad participation.

Foresight thus serves as both a methodology and a mindset that helps in understanding complex processes of change and making decisions that influence the future.

Source: Tuomo Kuosa: Towards Strategic Intelligence. Foresight, Intelligence, and Policy-Making (2014)
You can download Kuosa’s book here: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1235945&dswid=2317